All Predictions Are Wrong But Some are Useful
Guessing the future one mistake at a time
Everything keeps changing. If you’ve been around for a while you’ve seen incredible transformations in technology, work, communication, and entertainment.
Some of us have gone from black and white TV to color, to multiple channels, to the internet, to Netflix, and now the beginning of the AI revolution. All that in less than a century.
It is remarkable how far we’ve come and how much progress is accelerating day by day.
Yet, most people don’t even notice.
Like the proverbial frog in warm water changes, however exponential, are imperceptible when living through them. You don’t go from sending a telegram in Morse code to a video call overnight, it takes decades for this transformation to occur. Changes keep creeping up unnoticed and before you know you are already in a brand new ecosystem with different rules and protocols.
Most people don’t see it coming. They think we are already fine here and there is no need to invent yet another technology to revolutionize everything. This is known as the end-of-history bias.
Bill Gates famously said in the 90s that the internet had no market outside academia. Other experts made similar predictions about…
