Do you know how to estimate the odds of something happening?
Chances are you don’t. (Pun intended, sorry)
Probability is one of those things that despite its importance in decision making we don’t really pay enough attention to.
Even science has shifted from determinism to a probabilistic approach — Doctors, Engineers, and Physicists express their findings in probabilistic results rather than using certainty.
In 1908 Heisenberg formulated the principle of uncertainty by which the position of an electron at a given moment can’t be determined with precision and can only be expressed probabilistically.
Things are not black or white. They are 78.5% black or 54.3% white. All is a spectrum and by seeing the world that way you get a better grasp upon reality.
Luck vs Probability
Luck plays an important part in our lives, some events are completely outside our control. The fact that you were born is in itself a chance event with extremely low odds. Have your father not met your mother, you wouldn’t be here.
When we look at the past, we like to think that we have been in control for most of the time. But luck has played a bigger role than we’d like to admit.
When somebody gets lucky in business or politics, they tend to concoct a backfitting narrative to explain how much vision and control they exerted over the outcome. This is a common fallacy.
Of course, you should work hard, make the right decisions, and study the probabilities of success. There is a part of your life that it’s under your control. Use it to make wise decisions but when looking back don’t be fooled by randomness (Nassim Taleb)
If you try your luck at the lottery or any other form of gambling, I’ve got news for you: You are throwing your money away. The chances of winning are virtually zero.
Not only people waste their money in low odd games, but they also train their minds to be delusional.