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The Planning Fallacy
Life is what happens to you while you are busy planning
Planning ahead is crucial. Whether it’s for personal or professional reasons, it’s paramount that you make detailed and accurate forecasts of where you and your company will be in the next 5, 10 or 20 years.
This is what you are supposed to say in an interview or a business meeting.
Unfortunately, it’s bullshit.
I’m not talking about organizing your schedule, setting some goals or knowing the general direction you want to go. I’m talking about planning that involves forecasting the future.
Planning is just mental masturbation, we have no idea how the world will look like in 3 months, let alone in 5 years.
The company I was working for, produced a 5-year plan in which some highly paid consultants made educated guesses about the growth, market share and brand penetration.
Then Corona-virus happened…
They would have had more success by getting a finger in the wind.
Granted, nobody could have foreseen that, but that’s beside the point — now it’s Corona, later it’ll be something else — There is always something disruptive about to happen, it’s just a matter of time.
